Sports
The 2024 Detroit Tigers are exhibit A of evidence for how pitching in Major League Baseball is changing from a emphasis on starters to a team pitching staff. The Tigers basically got in to the playoffs with only one legit starter in Tarik Skubal, who dominated the Astros in his first playoff outing yesterday. Today and tomorrow, if necessary, the Tigers will deploy their entire pitching staff with a combination of openers, middle relievers, and closers and they can do so because they have one of the lowest team ERAs. I am sure the Tigers would love to have more than one starter on their staff, and they had that up to the trade deadline, but the quality of the bullpen was good enough to get them a wild card spot, and that would have been the case for the Cubs if the pen were better in 2024.
I am surprised the BleedCubbieBlue.com’s playoff summary of the Mets/Brewers series doesn’t ask the obvious question. Will the Brewers find their problem of not advancing in the playoffs was Craig Counsell? The first year of Counsell’s management of the Cubs produced the literal same result as the prior year, suggesting he is not the difference maker and that David Ross was not the problem. What might it mean about Counsell if the Brewers make it the World Series in the first year after his departure?
On this day in 1984 I watched the Chicago Cubs make the playoffs for the first time in my lifetime thanks to the pitching of Rick Sutcliffe. At the time it felt as though the best NL team, the Cubs, would meet the best AL team, the Detroit Tigers, but then the debacle in San Diego and Steve “bleeping” Garvey.
Just yesterday I wrote about how major league baseball has changed making the bullpen more important, at least as important, as starting pitchers and today BleedCubbieBlue.com reinforces that with stats about how trend of fewer stating pitching pitching 162 innings per year.
Looking To Next Season
The Cubs did not meet their expectation to win the NL Central division this year and they will not be in the playoffs this year. Last year I wrote that during the off-season the Cubs needed to sign two reliable starting pitchers and retain Merryweather in the bullpen; they only signed one reliable pitcher and Merryweather was injured all season.
Assad has earned the right to be in the starting rotation next year along with Imanaga, Steele and Taillon, but Hendricks should be gone so they will need one more starter and it is uncertain whether that starter is currently in the Cubs system.
Before deciding whether the Cubs need to sign a starter, there needs to be consideration that the bullpen in today’s game may be more important than starting pitching. Working with a slate of new bullpen pitchers is not a good strategy for how pitchers are now used, so I would focus more on keeping the bullpen pitchers you can count on and replacing those you cannot with people who you expect to be on the team for several years. I don’t think enough consideration has been made on the consequence of the three hitter minimum on relief pitchers.
Finally, it should be clear by now that the Cubs batting line up is too easy to shut down. It looks to me like every hitter has the same profile such that if a pitcher has success against one person they likely will succeed against all. Because nobody gets one or more hits in every game, there needs to be diversity such that when one player gets 0 hits another gets 2 or more hits.
The Cubs line up is a result of a system of evaluating hitters and that system, for which the Cubs front office is responsible, is clearly flawed. Exhibit A of this is the mid-season signing of Paredes this year and Candelario last year, both were no different than the other Cubs hitters and did not much help once inserted in to the lineup. The 2024 Cubs had the same results of the prior team and every team since 2017. If we want a different result then the system needs to change.
It’s time for a turnover in the front office, a new approach is needed in evaluating hitters. I am convinced that despite the new, cool metrics, team batting average still matters. A high team average exists with a good ratio of good, consistent hitters who have a high individual average, to unreliable low average hitters. Home runs might win games, but it doesn’t look like an entire line up of 20 home run hitters will win championships. The 2024 Cubs hitters excelled against poor pitching, but was not competitive against good pitching.
BTW, the Cubs did it again, putting up another football score (12-0) on the Pirates. The pitching staff and catcher posted a combined no-hitter. The Cubs are 4.5 games behind the Braves for the final wild card and continue to play with our emotions. An aside, how much worse would the Cubs be without Shota Imanaga?
The last two weeks sum up the Chicago Cubs 2024 season. Last week the Cubs put up football scores against the Pittsburgh Pirates (18-8, 9-5, 14-10) and gave me hope that they could make a real run for the last MLB playoff wildcard. A week later the Cubs are playing that same Pirates team and have lost 3-5 and 0-5, and that pretty much has me throwing in the towel on their chances. Yes, they are only 4.5 games back and thus mathematically in it, but after the Pirates leave the Yankees come in to Chicago for three games and then the Cubs travel to LA to play the Dodgers, and they are very likely going to be out of the running by the end of that series against the Dodgers. If the Cubs were to make the playoffs, it will be because they are lucky; their inconsistency makes it more probable they will be watching the playoffs
In Hindsight
The Cubs have been playing better since the All Star break and have got themselves to 1 game below .500, making the series against Cleveland that starts tonight important. The Cubs have a favorable schedule for August so they have a chance to put their record well above that .500 mark and make the Wild Card race interesting for their fans. Right now the Cubs are 3 games out of a final Wild Card spot but their are four other teams ahead of them. All the Cubs have to do is keep winning.
After The 2024 Trade Deadline
Officially the All-Star game is considered to be the half-way mark of a MLB season, but the real mid-season milestone that matters is the trade deadline. The actions taken by a team by the trade deadline indicate whether the team management thinks it can make the playoffs, if they do then they will try to make trades that help the team win in the current season, otherwise they start work on the next season. Jed Hoyer’s comments that he was focusing on 2025 was indication that Cub’s management doesn’t expect to make the playoffs this year.
Last season the Chicago Cubs were surprising buyers at the deadline, having gone on a winning streak that convinced Jed Hoyer the team had the shot at a wildcard spot, but that didn’t happen and David Ross the scapegoat. Now this season, after signing Craig Counsell to the highest salary of any MLB manager the Cubs are last in the NL Central with a 51-58 record and they are seven games out of the last wild card spot. In short, the Cubs are likely not making the playoffs this year. Are they going to fire Counsell?
Even though the playoff positioning is different between last year and this year, a fair assessment is that the team is really no better than the year before, nor the year before that or any other year up to 2016. What we have is the same problems of unreliable hitting and pitching from the bullpen. The fact that the 2024 team’s starting pitching has been so good is as much an indicator of how much MLB has changed since 2016 than anything. It used to be that teams with strong starting pitching were winners, but the game now does not rely so much on starting pitching to win games.
The sole purpose of starting pitching in the game today is to not lose the game in the first five innings by not giving up more than three runs, the bullpen is expected to now win every game by not giving up any runs. If that weren’t bad enough, hitting is a completely lost art in baseball, with hitters needing only a .244 batting average to be considered good. The game has come down to this, pitching keeping the opponents from hitting home runs until your own batters hit two or more home runs.
The Chicago Cubs line up has been made up of the similar type of unreliable hitters for nearly a decade now, which is a clear indicator to me that the front office’s idea of what is a major league hitter is out of sync with reality. As long as Hoyer is running the Cubs they will not be any different, and so it’s on ownership to recognize the insanity of continuing to do the same thing and expecting a different result.
If I were the owner of the Chicago Cubs, now that the trade deadline has past, I would fire Hoyer immediately to signal that it’s time for a change. Take the time to review and interview people over the remainder of the season to find the right replacement to have your new front office in place before the off season begins in earnest.
Forty years go today the Chicago Cubs signed Rick Sutcliffe and the team would go on to the NLCS for first time in my life. Unfortunately, in 1984 the Cubs blew a 2-0 lead of a five game series against the San Diego Padres, losing three straight in San Diego, so they did not go on to the World Series when they would likely have lost to the Detroit Tigers.
On this date the Chicago Cubs' record is 32-35 and they are 7 games behind Milwaukee for the NL Central division and a half game behind the last wildcard spot. In short, about the same record and standings as they had last year. The Cubs didn’t need to make Craig Counsell the highest paid manager in Major League Baseball to achieve this level of mediocrity, they did that fine under David Ross. It should be obvious by now the real problem is the front office.
Good morning Cubs fans! Welcome to Eclipse day. Our Cubbies have played three series and won two of them. We could have won all three of them if you consider how well Justin Steele was pitching before his injury in Texas. So far the lineup as produced runs and the starting pitching has been pretty good. My only disappointment yesterday is that the rain disrupted Imanga’s start against the Dodgers, which I was looking forward to seeing. Hopefully they continue to play well during the road trip this week along the west coast.
Today is the Chicago Cub’s home opener after they completed the first series of the season with one again and two loses against the Texas Rangers. Texas is the defending World Series champion and therefore is one of best teams, so not getting swept is a bonus. In fact, the Cubs came within inches of maybe winning the first game in the tenth inning when a foul ball hit by Christopher Morel just missed being a grand slam. Steele was keeping the Rangers lineup in check before he pulled a hamstring fielding a swinging bunt. Despite this, my reaction after one series is that the current Cubs lineup seems no better than last year’s, with the same unreliable hitting, amplified by bad fielding.
Pugnosticating The 2024 Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs have completed the 2024 Cactus League spring training “season” and will start the 2024 MLB season tomorrow at the Texas Rangers. As many questions exist about the 2024 team as did for the 2023 team, so it is hard for me to expect them to be too much better than last year. Will Greg Counsell as the new manager make a difference? Perhaps that is the main question going in to this season.
One cannot read much into what happens at spring training, although I attended spring training games in 2016, which is when the Cubs won the World Series, and have not attended a spring training game since nor have the Cubs returned to the World Series. Read in to that what you will.
I saw a text message from my buddy first thing yesterday morning, telling me that the Cubs had signed Cody Bellinger. It’s a three year for $80m deal that gives Bellinger opt outs after each year, so it is basically another one year contract. In other words, we will likely see this drama play out next off season. Regardless, the Cubs now have the appearance of a complete line up, it is a matter of whether they meet expectations.
Go Cubs Go! First day of MLB spring and the sun is shining.
On paper the Cubs don’t look much better than last season, in fact you could make the case that they are worse. The saving grace is that no other team stands out in the NL Central, so one can claim the Cubs have as good a chance as any to win their division. More and more it looks like the Cubs owners are settled with the one World Series win and now are all about milking a cash cow like owners before.
Today is the the first day of spring. The Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox start spring at 3 PM EST today, and the Cubs have not signed Cody Bellinger. Hoyer has stuck to the plan as I saw it back in November. He did sign a pitcher to fill out the starting rotation, another pitcher for the back end of the bullpen, and a possible starting first baseman. Only way I see Bellinger back in the Cubs uni this season is if he gets anxious and decides to sign a short term, one or two year deal with an opt out to secure work for this season. In other words, Hoyer and Boras are playing a game of chicken.
Public Service Announcement! It’s seven days until the Chicago Cubs spring training 2024 opener. Spring is only seven days away people!