Sports
As I said, “Scoring lots of runs is entertaining but preventing lots of runs wins championships.” The Chicago Cubs got blown at last night in San Diego, 0-8, and tonight is likely their last game of the 2026 season.
Cubs September Performance
So far in the month of September the Chicago Cubs have played 16 games. In ten games they have scored 4 or more runs, but in only five games their opponents scored 3 or fewer runs. The Cubs’ record to date in September is 7 wins and 9 losses.
As the Cubs are in a race for the top wildcard spot in the National League, all of the games in September have been playoff-like. The recipe for winning playoff games is to hold your opponents to 3 or fewer runs while your team scores 4 or more runs.
Despite the Cubs scoring 4 or more runs in 10 games, they have only 7 wins because in only 5 of those 16 games their pitching has been able to prevent more than 3 runs. When you factor in that in playoff baseball teams face the best pitching the data shows the Cubs are not likely to have success in the playoffs.
The 2026 Chicago Cubs are too reliant on their lineup scoring a lot of runs to win games, and they have the bats to do that but will have too much pressure to perform in multiple rounds. Scoring lots of runs is entertaining but preventing lots of runs wins championships.
Confidence Lost
Al Yellon on Greg Counsell’s decision to leave Boyd in the game to face Ortize in the eighth inning last night…
“The Brewers’ leadoff hitter in the eighth was a left-handed bat, Garrett Mitchell. So I figured Counsell would leave Boyd in to face Mitchell, then call on a right-handed reliever to face the next two bats, right-handed hitters Joey Ortiz and Jackson Chourio.
Ryan Zeferjahn, who’d been so good in his last two outings, was the righty in the bullpen. Unfortunately, Boyd walked Mitchell.
Still — the right call here is to bring in Zeferjahn to face Ortiz, right? With Ortiz being a right-handed hitter and Boyd now tiring at 93 pitches?
Well, you know what happened. Ortiz doubled down the line. Now Zeferjahn has to come in and face Chourio with two runners in scoring position with nobody out. His two-run single gave the Brewers the lead, and after a walk and strikeout, Jacob Webb was called in to clean up the mess. Another walk loaded the bases and a sac fly by Christian Yelich gave the Brewers a fourth run which, as it turned out, they needed.
Counsell should have taken Boyd out after Mitchell. Period. Not sure what he was thinking.”
I know what Counsell was thinking and it reflects a manager who has no confidence in his bullpen. Many of us have lost confidence too, therefore understand why Boyd was left in. The fundamental problem is that the Cubs’ manager is in a position of not knowing what to do in September!
I have resigned myself to believing that while the Cubs will make the playoffs as a wildcard, they will exit right away, probably in a sweep. What makes the Cubs interesting to watch is Pete Crow-Armstrong’s chase for 40/40 and NL MVP.
The 2026 Chicago Cubs are wasting a good lineup by having the worst pitching in the MLB. For me the root cause is Jed Hoyer treating the bullpen like a fantasy baseball manager, with turnovers every year and failure in real investment. The bullpen is foundational to pitching in the current era of pitching, and you see how teams like the Brewers who maintain consistency year over year and invest in the bullpen are competitive every year. In contrast, every year the Cubs try to build a new bullpen from the castoffs of other teams.
Now, while I put the blame for the pitching on Hoyer, I also have issues with Greg Counsells’ decisions with pitching. For example, it has been obvious that Shota Imanaga is not giving his team a chance to win when he takes the mound, so either Assad or Rae should take his place in the starting rotation. Instead, Counsell keeps starting him, hoping for a different result.
The Cubs will earn a wildcard spot in the playoffs, but the most likely outcome is a first round loss and regression from last year. Injuries will be the excuse but the reality is that the team is severely mis-managed from the owner on down. Not making changes in leadership and expecting different results each year is insanity. If Ricketts doesn’t want the Cubs to have a real chance to be in the World Series he ought to sell the team.
Winning The Trade Deadline Doesn't Matter
Trades at the Major League Baseball deadline do not make champions, championship teams are built during the off season and through development of young players. Good teams that need one or two players at the deadline and get them can make themselves a great team.
By most measures, the Chicago Cubs became a better team at this year’s deadline by getting the players they needed. The problem is, the Cubs needed too many players at the deadline, and didn’t make their lineup more reliable.
Right now I feel there is no point in ranting about the Chicago Cubs because with the same person at the top of the organization thinking there would be a different outcome is insane. Jed’s big off-season signing was an exchange for one under-performing player in the last third of his career for another, so the lineup is the same as last year and thus we had no real reason to expect something better than last season.
The Current Cubs Failure Starts At The Very Top
What Craig Counsell and David Ross have in common is that both are former players and I think that is the context in which one has to conclude that so far Counsell has not been better than the person he replaced. Former player managers appear to be more likely to continue to expect older players who once did very well to find their former selves any day now, when the probability of that happening is not likely.
The problem with the current Cubs is not Counsell just as Ross was not the problem when we was fired. The continued success of the Milwaukee Brewers after Counsell left them for the Cubs is for me strong evidence that it’s a system that leads to success not one person. What is important is the people at the top of a baseball team, the owner and next in command, to make good hires for people to put in place a good system.
The Chicago Cubs will continue fail to meet expectations and long as Jed Hoyer is running the Cubs. Hoyer wrongly over valued Counsell’s contributions at the Brewers and under valued the Brewer organization that clearly is superior to the Cubs. Counsell leaves and his bench coach is promoted to manager and the Brewers keep winning, what does that tell you?
I expect Counsell will be fired because that is the simplest action for Hoyer to take, and Jed isn’t going to fire himself. Rickett’s extended Hoyer last season before the trade deadline even after demonstrating poor decision making by trading the organization’s top prospect for a poor performing rental in Kyle Tucker.
Doing the same thing over and over is insanity. The Hoyer lead organization is convinced low cost, low budget aquisitions will get the Cubs back to the World Series but the current roster is just the latest evidence that will not work. We have the same team now as we had in every year since 2019.
Streaking Baseball Players
The Chicago Cubs have won ten games in a row, which is their second ten game winning streak of this season. Right now it is fun to be a fan of the Chicago Cubs given that their entire lineup is hitting and that puts a lot pressure on opposing pitchers. If the line up keeps this up, the Cubs could be a champion, but that is not likely. The key to winning divisions in baseball is stacking wins to put distance between you and other teams in the division so that you can get a large enough for when the team loses several games in a row you don’t lose your place.
I think it’s hard for me to get really excited about this year’s team because of the pitching staff. Teams that have success in the playoffs have Cy Young caliber pitchers and right now I can’t put any of Cubs starters in that category.
Going in to the season, Cade Horton had that potential, but he is injured and done for the year. Shota Imanga is pitching very well as is Edward Cabrera but the big question about both is whether they can sustain their current performance through the entire season, both have history of injuries.
Pitching wins championships and right now it’s hard to feel confident that the Cubs current pitching is good enough. The Cubs lineup and current pitching may be good enough to win their division, and perhaps even get to the National League championship series, but as teams advance in the playoffs chances of that opposing pitching will neutralize a lineup increases and that is when your pitching matters.
Pitching Is Hurting The Cubs
While acknowledging this as probably too much of a generalization, I think baseball games are won (or lost) by either pitching or hitting. Based on earned run average, I think that when a MLB pitching staff gives up more than four runs it did not do its job. During the Cub’s recent ten game winning streak their pitchers gave up more than four runs only once. Now the Cubs have lost three in a row, and in every one the pitchers gave up more than four runs. Worse, they have given up six or more runs in each game, therefore not giving their hitting much of a chance to win.
The Cubs do currently have a winning 17-12 record due to the fact that of the 24 games played in April, Cub pitchers held opponents to four are fewer runs in 16 games. It appears to be the case that the huge number of their pitchers on IL is catching up to the Cubs.
If the pitching trend continues and given how well the other teams in the NL Central are playing, the Cubs will end up with a losing record for the season and not make the playoffs.
I think North Side Baseball provides an explanation on the Chicago Cubs that as good as any other and I would summarize it thusly, they have no margin for error. Without any big bats in the lineup prone to hit home runs they need the entire lineup to be hitting, and the probability of that happening consistently is low. For me it all comes back to how this team has been constructed around good but budget friendly players.